Weekly Brief – February 15, 2021
One of the biggest unknowns of the real estate market in 2021 is the impact of the lifting of COVD-19 forbearances, and the expiration of foreclosure moratoria.
The number of mortgage loans in forbearance is still quite high, at 5.38%. And the pace of borrowers exiting forbearance plans is the lowest since tracking began in the summer of 2020. This could mean that borrowers are unable to resume regular mortgage payments due to continuing weakness in the economy.
However, some commentators argue that an accelerating economic recovery due to the reduced impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to borrowers being in a position to resume mortgage payments. If this is the case, the rate of foreclosures once moratoria are lifted could be lower than expected.
The other unknown variable is whether we will see further governmental relief targeted to the housing and mortgage industries. This could be an x-factor that upends the normal market forces.
Obviously, the rate of foreclosures will have a significant impact on home prices. Right now, home sales are increasing at a healthy rate. Perhaps even too quickly. Too many foreclosures, however, could shift that pendulum back to stagnant, or even decreasing home prices.
The ultimate outcome of the COVID-19 economic crisis and its impact on housing prices will be a trend to watch this summer and in 2022.
Mortgage Forebearance Crashes to a Halt
With 2.7 million Americans still taking advantage of mortgage forebearance programs as late as mid-January 2021, the reality of a housing crisis looms. The CARES Act programs will end at the end of March unless changes are made to the rules. Most of the programs have a 12-month cap. If no intervention occurs, 600,000 Americans will have to begin paying their mortgages again.
Weekly Brief – January 11, 2021
I want to highlight a few topics that I believe will dominate the Michigan real estate landscape at a macro level in 2021.
First, mortgage foreclosures will begin to impact the residential market later this year. Although there is the potential for further federal or state moratoria, eventually we will be unable to kick the can further down the road. These foreclosures will begin to place downward pressure on sales prices at the end of 2021 or early 2022, as the foreclosed properties will begin to be marketed for resale.
Second, the impact of COVID-19 on commercial properties will begin to be felt in 2021 as well.
Although it appears the industrial class is weathering the storm quite well, the same cannot be said for retail and office properties.
For retail properties, in addition to the impact of “stay home” orders, you have the continuing trend of online shopping, which only accelerated due to COVID-19. Paradoxically, the decline of the retail sector has contributed to the stability of the industrial sector, as logistics and warehouse uses that support online retailers have thrived during the pandemic.
Major retailers often file for bankruptcy protection in January, after the cold realities of a failed holiday season hit home. This year, I would expect that major retailers, as well as “mom and pop” stores will have to fact reality in early 2021. The “sit-down” restaurant sector will likely also be impacted.
For the office sector, it remains to be seen is whether the impact will be long-lasting. If companies permanently shift work to a remote, or work-from-home, setting, the impact on the office sector could be significant. However, if employers move back to a traditional work setting, 2020 may be a blip on the office sector radar.
Finally, the lifting of eviction moratoria will impact the residential market. Evictions could have a net positive impact on the investor-owned market, as non-paying tenants are shown the literal, and proverbial, door. Or it could merely signal that rental rates will be forced down, impacting investors and overall residential market pricing.
If you would like to track articles on foreclosure and evictions, those articles are specifically tracked on this page of the Michigan Real Estate News website.
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