Victoria’s Secret, a brand of L Brands, intends to close up to 50 stores in 2021. This is after the closure of 250 stores in 2020. L Brands continues to look for a solution to its Victoria’s Secret problem, including spinning the brand off to a private equity firm.
A vacant Farmington Hills industrial space is up for redevelopment. Located on Northwestern Highway, between 14 Mile and Middlebelt, the property will be the home of a 5-story apartment development that includes 200 units, varying in size of one, two, or three bedrooms. The complex would also include a bike path, clubhouse, and pool. Some planning commission members are concerned about the 5-story design and the dense traffic it could cause. They want it to not exceed four stories.
The old Detroit Lions’ administrative offices, located at in Detroit’s Corktown neighborhood on Michigan Avenue, will be demolished to make way for a Godfrey Hotel. The 227-room, $74 million project will be the 5th Godfrey Hotel in the country. The hotel will contain a restaurant, bar, ballroom, and rooftop café. Construction is expected to take 18 to 20 months and is a joint venture of Oxford Capital Group and Hunter Pasteur Homes.
As I discussed last week, the impact of mortgage forbearance and foreclosures on the residential market remains unknown. There are multiple variables that could impact the ultimate effect: government intervention, the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the state of the economy and job growth when foreclosures are once again allowed.
The Biden administration bought more time for job growth and to bring an end to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic this week by extending the foreclosure moratorium, which was set to expire on March 31. The moratorium now lasts until (at least) June 30. This gives the economy another three (3) months to recover. From an optimistic viewpoint, this could blunt the impact of foreclosures, as more borrowers could get back on firm financial footing during this three-month period. A pessimist might argue that this only kicks the can down the road another three months.
Regardless of your viewpoint, this extension does delay the potential impact of foreclosures on the residential market. As has been noted in several articles, residential prices are growing at a brisk pace. A glut of foreclosures could slow down that price growth. However, given the timing to process a foreclosure, the redemption period, and the post-possession sale process, it does not appear that foreclosed properties will hit the market until late in Q3 2022, or early Q4 2022, given this new extension of the foreclosure moratorium.
The residential market in Michigan remains strongly favorable to sellers. Inventory is limited, and demand remains strong. Perhaps in 2022 the entry of foreclosed properties to the marketplace will shift the pendulum back in the buyer’s direction.
The Wayne County Treasurer’s Office has expanded its tax assistance program to now assist commercial property owners and landlords who have up to five occupied rental properties. The program gives eligible landlords and businesses time to pay off the back tax debt but doesn’t lower the 18% yearly interest rate. It allows them to pay 25% down and then pay off the rest of their balance through March of the next year.
One incentive to participate in the plan: The tax foreclosure process will move forward this year for all property classifications; the Wayne County Treasurer does not anticipate extending the foreclosure moratorium through this year, even for residential properties.
The vacancy rate for apartments rose 16% in the fourth quarter, double what it was in the first quarter of 2020. Pre-pandemic occupancy rates were at 92%. They currently hover in the mid-80s. Landlords are offering move-in deals and lower rental rates to moderate the decline. Anecdotal data suggests that renters left when their jobs pivoted to virtual work or with the closures of area businesses like restaurants, bars, and sports and music venues. Developers predict the downward trend is temporary.
Plans for a new $7 million Detroit transit center are moving forward despite an outcry from preservationist groups. The new bus hub would require the demolition of two historic state fairground structures: The State Fair Riding Coliseum and the Dairy Cattle Building. The city agreed to conduct a three month study on the feasibility of saving them, but preservationist argue that the process hasn’t been prioritized and reuse hasn’t seriously been considered.
Using a three-pronged approach, President Biden rolled out mortgage protections. He extended the expiration date for the foreclosure moratorium from March 31 to June 30 and extended the enrollment window to request a mortgage payment forbearance. The third protection allows borrowers to defer mortgage payments for an additional six months. Eligible homeowners must have enrolled in a forbearance plan by June 30, 2020.
Sometimes, first time home buyers don’t know what they don’t know. Buyers need to be proactive at the start of the home buying process or common mistakes can stall their efforts. Some proactive steps include paying attention to the paperwork when it’s first received to check for errors, making sure the property assessment matches or is under your offer by doing your market research before submitting your offer and keeping a tight rein on big-ticket spending prior to closing.
One of the biggest unknowns of the real estate market in 2021 is the impact of the lifting of COVD-19 forbearances, and the expiration of foreclosure moratoria.
The number of mortgage loans in forbearance is still quite high, at 5.38%. And the pace of borrowers exiting forbearance plans is the lowest since tracking began in the summer of 2020. This could mean that borrowers are unable to resume regular mortgage payments due to continuing weakness in the economy.
However, some commentators argue that an accelerating economic recovery due to the reduced impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to borrowers being in a position to resume mortgage payments. If this is the case, the rate of foreclosures once moratoria are lifted could be lower than expected.
The other unknown variable is whether we will see further governmental relief targeted to the housing and mortgage industries. This could be an x-factor that upends the normal market forces.
Obviously, the rate of foreclosures will have a significant impact on home prices. Right now, home sales are increasing at a healthy rate. Perhaps even too quickly. Too many foreclosures, however, could shift that pendulum back to stagnant, or even decreasing home prices.
The ultimate outcome of the COVID-19 economic crisis and its impact on housing prices will be a trend to watch this summer and in 2022.
