Weekly Brief – February 15, 2021

One of the biggest unknowns of the real estate market in 2021 is the impact of the lifting of COVD-19 forbearances, and the expiration of foreclosure moratoria.

The number of mortgage loans in forbearance is still quite high, at 5.38%. And the pace of borrowers exiting forbearance plans is the lowest since tracking began in the summer of 2020. This could mean that borrowers are unable to resume regular mortgage payments due to continuing weakness in the economy.

However, some commentators argue that an accelerating economic recovery due to the reduced impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to borrowers being in a position to resume mortgage payments. If this is the case, the rate of foreclosures once moratoria are lifted could be lower than expected.

The other unknown variable is whether we will see further governmental relief targeted to the housing and mortgage industries. This could be an x-factor that upends the normal market forces.

Obviously, the rate of foreclosures will have a significant impact on home prices. Right now, home sales are increasing at a healthy rate. Perhaps even too quickly. Too many foreclosures, however, could shift that pendulum back to stagnant, or even decreasing home prices.

The ultimate outcome of the COVID-19 economic crisis and its impact on housing prices will be a trend to watch this summer and in 2022.