With 2.7 million Americans still taking advantage of mortgage forebearance programs as late as mid-January 2021, the reality of a housing crisis looms. The CARES Act programs will end at the end of March unless changes are made to the rules. Most of the programs have a 12-month cap. If no intervention occurs, 600,000 Americans will have to begin paying their mortgages again.
In a new report, Fitch Ratings estimates that home prices are 5.5% overvalued nationally. However, Michigan is one of the few states where housing is undervalued.
The demand for housing far exceeds the available inventory nationwide. This trend is due, in part, to homeowners’ reluctance to list homes during the pandemic. Metro areas around the United States are overvalued by more than 10%. Las Vegas (28%) and Dallas-Fort Worth (20.24%) are prime examples. Idaho (30-34%) is the highest overvalued state on the list, with Nevada coming in a close second.
The forthcoming flood of retail closures is starting. Godiva is closing 128 storefronts and cafes across North America by the end of March. Their chocolate will continue to be available online and in partnering retail and grocery stores. With the bulk of profits stemming from tourism, special occasion and impulse buying, the decrease for in-person shopping is to blame for the company’s shift. Chocolate sales have risen by 5% during the pandemic. In-store operations will continue in Europe, the Middle East and Greater China.
When compared to the 20 bankruptcies that were filed per month over the last year, the 11 companies who filed for bankruptcy over the past month could point to a slow down. Cheap money/capital have helped troubled companies stay afloat, slowing the bankruptcy filings.
However, the retail, office, and hotel sectors are particularly vulnerable. The impact of the pandemic is trickling down as the government intervention to prop up the economy starts to slow.
The Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, also known as CVG, has 15,000 fewer arrivals and departures since the start of the pandemic. That doesn’t mean their runways are clear. Their air cargo business is booming. Amazon Air is completing a 798,000 square-foot sorting center, a seven-level parking structure, and acres of concrete to accommodate 20 aircraft. The new facility is scheduled to open in the fall. This boom in logistics is impacting industrial development around the country.
With the presidential election behind us and the COVID-19 vaccine on the horizon, renters feel a bit more certain about the market. But is this boom point to a recovering leasing market? Leasing trends were already on a downturn when the pandemic hit in March. Manhattanites were leaving for suburban living. Rental rates spiraled downward to 17.3% lower than those of the previous year. The upward trend is encouraging, but there’s still a lot of inventory and record concessions and vacancies. Whether the lease boom is a mirage remains to be seen.
Thousands face eviction in St. Louis, Missouri. The backlog of eviction suits threatens to leave many homeless, especially low-income tenants. An eviction defense program and hotline that was set up in August 2020 has received 60% more calls than normal, and many of those calls concern illegal lockouts. The backlog of eviction suits is concerning, with the fear being that all of these tenants may be put out all at once when the eviction moratorium ends.
Macy’s will close 45 stores nationwide by the middle of 2021. These closures come on the heels of the company’s February 2020 announcement of their plans to cut 2,000 jobs and close roughly 125 locations. The company received a credit line of $3.15 billion in June of 2020 which has allowed it to survive the impact of COVID-19. The timing of the store closings may be adjusted as Macy’s monitors its recovery from the pandemic and the performance of its competitors.
The New York Legislature has passed a comprehensive and controversial anti-eviction law. The new law bans tenant evictions for a least another 60 days and offers some foreclosure protection to small business owners, as well as renews tax exemptions for elderly or disabled homeowners. Critics feel the law goes to far and doesn’t require proof that financial hardships are due to the pandemic or define income limitations to qualify for eviction protection.
Community Builders, a Grand Rapids-based nonprofit, is partnering with the city’s Homeless Outreach Team to coordinate short-term accomodations and support service for the area’s homeless population. The Geographically Targeted Housing Outreach intiative (GTHO) is funded in part by the city of Grand Rapids Emergency Solutions Grants under the federal CARES Act.
A Detroit Free Press investigation discovered gaps in the state’s safety net designed to prevent renters from losing their homes. Although the number of evictions has decreased when compared to 2019 data, 4 factors are crippling the state’s evction protection measures: A lack of comprehensive statewide data, missing key information to track communities that have not received aid, local judges who fail to follow the state Supreme Court order, and landlords who are finding leasing loopholes.
The raw number of mortgages in active forebearance rose last week, driven by the share of loans in forebearance and rising from 5.2% to 5.3 % in private label securities or banks portfolios. The share of FHA and VA loans in forebearance also increased. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac maintained their 3.5% portfolio share from the prior week.