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Pending Home Sales in Steep Decline

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Pending home sales are often considered as a leading indicator of existing-home purchases. For the sixth month, U.S. pending home sales fell in November to the second-lowest on record. Higher borrowing costs and economic uncertainties continue to exclude many potential buyers out of the market. The National Association of Realtors index of contract signings to purchase previously owned homes took a hit. The index decreased to 73.9, exceeding estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The doubling of borrowing costs, from the start of 2022 to present, has caused home sales and prices to decline. A University of Michigan survey indicates that current home-buying conditions are worse than the early 1980s.

 

Michigan’s Residential Real Estate Market Is Stabilizing

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The 2023 real estate market is finally starting to look like it might normalize. Seasonality is back in the resale market, and rent increases and high supply costs have mostly stabilized. However, interest rates will remain high, pricing some buyers out of home ownership. Some materials costs continue to be issues. While materials costs have rebounded for the most part, builders are now more conditioned to check on lead times and suggest alternatives if long waits are indicated. Building materials that once took eight months to arrive are now arriving after 4-6 weeks. Lumber is at pre-pandemic prices, while materials like concrete continue to be expensive. Rents are stabilizing. Fewer people are leaving apartments to buy homes, and people are doubling up. Home sale prices are dropping in some areas, like Wyandotte, Southgate and Riverview. Experts are expecting the industry market to contract, with realtors who are inexperienced in a tight market leaving the business.

 

 

Regional Home Sales Decline Despite Interest Rate Drop

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Regional home sales declined into the double digits in November, but prices remained high. RealComp and RE/MAX of Southeastern Michigan released reports on Tuesday confirming that buyers won’t have any price relief when compared to last year. The two separate reports reveal that the number of home sales in Southeast Michigan dropped by more than 14% from October to November. Even with a considerable interest rate drop, the largest since 2008, consumers aren’t enthusiastic. Many are delaying listing their homes for sale because buyer demand is weakening, and they don’t want to risk their current lower mortgage rates.

 

Kent County Housing Snags Millions In American Rescue Plan Funds

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Kent County housing is in line for almost $20 million by way of American Rescue Plan funds. The Kent County Revolving Housing Fund will receive $17.3 million, and an additional $500,000 is allotted to Housing Kent for the Kent County Equitable Housing Initiative. The funds represent one of the most significant investments in affordable housing by West Michigan local government. The funds will support new and rehabilitation projects with lower interest rates, allowing the community to leverage $3.30 for every dollar invested. The Kent County Equitable Housing Initiative will help with changes to local zoning.

 

Home Builders Buy Down Rates to Keep Prospective Buyers

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Builders are taking matters into their own hands, and the high interest rates and falling demand are forcing the issue. Rate buydown programs and other interest rate specials are on the rise in the new-construction market. Builders are making concessions to their bottom line in order to keep prospective buyers in the game. Builders are offering programs to lock down interest rates, guaranteeing rates or offering a few years of discounted interest rates so buyers can later refinance at a better rate. The saying “marry the home and date the rate” describes the thinking behind the move. According to the vice president of operations for M/I Homes Detroit, the company has spent millions to secure enough funds to provide several dozen loans. They’ve done this three times since this summer.  The company takes a 4 to 5 percent hit on the purchase of a home. Robertson Homes has taken between 1 1/2  and 2 points off a fixed-rate mortgage by contributing funds to the lender up front.

 

 

City Living More Affordable Than Suburban

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In the month of October. while home prices continued to increase, sales fell sharply in metro Detroit. According to RE/MAX of Southeastern Michigan, rising mortgage rates led to the drop in sales. RE/MAX of Southeastern Michigan sows a 28.3% decrease in sales, and Realcomp showed sales decreased 26.7%. Both report an increase in median sales price of 4.3% or higher. Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, Wayne and Washtenaw counties were consistent in both prices and homes sales data. However in comparison, Detroit has greater affordability, decreasing only 2.3% in sales, making city living more in reach than in the suburbs.

 

Metro Detroit Home Builders Hold Pessimistic Outlook for 2023

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Interest rates continue to rise. Issues with labor availability, materials costs and supply chain slow downs persist. New construction waiting lists are shrinking because people are priced out of the new homes they had set their sights on. Home builders are mired in pessimism as the industry slows. Detroit builders are shifty to other types of development, including remodeling work, self-storage and multifamily apartments. Builders are normally trying to dig basements and frame houses before winter hits, but that isn’t the case this year. September 2022 saw the lowest number of housing  permits pulled since 2011. Rising interest rates continue to impact the market. In contrast, multifamily permits are having their best year since 1998.

 

Mortgage Rates Surge Upward As Q3 Earnings Post

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Rising interest rates are having a big effect in Southeast Michigan. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is higher than 7%. This surge hasn’t been seen since April 2002. The U.S. Federal Reserve is hiking rates in order to control inflation. Detroit-based Rocket Mortgage parent company Rocket Companies Inc. will soon be reporting its third-quarter earnings on Nov. 3, providing a better picture of how mortgage companies will fare in the future months. Ann Arbor-based Home Point will report its earnings on Nov. 10. Pontiac’s UWM has not released the date of its third-quarter report.

 

As Mortgage Rates Rise, Demand Drops

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The S&P 500 bounced back from the 2022 lows. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds yield hit 4.337% on Friday. Following a Wall Street Journal report that some Federal Reserve officials are uneasy with the pace of the central bank’s interest rate increases, treasury yields slid down to close out the week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that U.S. mortgage demand dropped to a 25-year low, and the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.15%. The S&P 500’s price to earnings ration is 15.5 which is below its 10-year average.

 

Buyers Can Afford To Be Choosy As Housing Market Slows

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With rising interest rates, the fast and furious pandemic-era housing market has slowed. Metro Detroit home buyers have time to make thoughtful choices. Homes are sitting longer, and buyers are able to take time with inspections and decisions. Buyers’ questions have shifted from “How many offers?” to “Can we get a better deal on this house?” As home prices continue to increase, sales are dropping and homes are sitting on the market longer. The average number of days on the market in September was 29. The median sales price is 2.3% higher than last year. Sales are down nearly 20%.