Weekly Brief – April 12, 2021

With apologies to Dickens, 2021 is the best of times for residential sellers, and the worst of times for retail landlords. There are several stories this week that emphasize this divergence in the real estate market.

First, the good news. The residential market in Michigan is still thriving. It is still an incredibly strong seller’s market. This week saw multiple stories about the rising prices for residential properties. There are, however, some clouds on the horizon. Because prices in some areas are rising so quickly, the “appraisal gap” is becoming an issue. The appraisal gap arises when the home does not appraise for the purchase price. This generally means the buyer will have to come up with more cash for a down payment, as the lender will only finance the appraised value. If this were to continue in the long term, this issue could prevent younger, less wealthy buyers from purchasing homes. The second cloud on the horizon is that because inventory remains constrained, the market volume could remain artificially low.

Now, the bad news. Stories about the pummeling retailers are taking as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the systemic shift to online retailing continues to dominate. One analyst predicts 80,000 retail locations, or 9% of all retail locations, will close in the next five years, for an annual average of 16,000 closures per year. These closures will include major anchor retailers. This compares with the previous high of 9,832 per year. As I have noted previously, malls are taking the brunt of the damage, with the increase in vacancies hitting an all-time high in the past year. Some analysts believe a quarter of malls will close in the next five years.