Weekly Brief – January 11, 2021

I want to highlight a few topics that I believe will dominate the Michigan real estate landscape at a macro level in 2021.

First, mortgage foreclosures will begin to impact the residential market later this year. Although there is the potential for further federal or state moratoria, eventually we will be unable to kick the can further down the road. These foreclosures will begin to place downward pressure on sales prices at the end of 2021 or early 2022, as the foreclosed properties will begin to be marketed for resale.

Second, the impact of COVID-19 on commercial properties will begin to be felt in 2021 as well.

Although it appears the industrial class is weathering the storm quite well, the same cannot be said for retail and office properties.

For retail properties, in addition to the impact of “stay home” orders, you have the continuing trend of online shopping, which only accelerated due to COVID-19. Paradoxically, the decline of the retail sector has contributed to the stability of the industrial sector, as logistics and warehouse uses that support online retailers have thrived during the pandemic.

Major retailers often file for bankruptcy protection in January, after the cold realities of a failed holiday season hit home. This year, I would expect that major retailers, as well as “mom and pop” stores will have to fact reality in early 2021. The “sit-down” restaurant sector will likely also be impacted.

For the office sector, it remains to be seen is whether the impact will be long-lasting. If companies permanently shift work to a remote, or work-from-home, setting, the impact on the office sector could be significant. However, if employers move back to a traditional work setting, 2020 may be a blip on the office sector radar.

Finally, the lifting of eviction moratoria will impact the residential market. Evictions could have a net positive impact on the investor-owned market, as non-paying tenants are shown the literal, and proverbial, door. Or it could merely signal that rental rates will be forced down, impacting investors and overall residential market pricing.

If you would like to track articles on foreclosure and evictions, those articles are specifically tracked on this page of the Michigan Real Estate News website.